The set-up: Penn State comes to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois off a 63-10 victory over Kent State last weekend. The Illini enter off a hard-fought 25-19 loss to USF.

The teams: Penn State QB Trace McSorley had 229 passing yards and two TD's in last week's blowout win. So far he has 604 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Miles Sanders would post 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. The defense looked sharp as well in limiting the Flashes to just 221 total yards.

The Fighting Illini are averaging 28 PPG, while they're allowing just 21. MJ Rivers II had 168 passing yards in last week's loss. But No. 1 QB AJ Bush is expected back under center for this one, which is a huge boost for the home side's confidence. Ricky Smalling was an offensive standout last week as well with 40 receiving yards.

The pick: Illinois has already played tough at home, as evidenced by its early 2-1 ATS record. Penn State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range, including 0-1 ATS this season. I'm banking on these strong trends continuing. Grab the points.