Burnley has had a tough start to their most recent EPL promotion. They dominated the Championship last season and were rewarded with an opening match against treble winners Man City. It didn’t go well. Then their week 2 match was cancelled because Luton’s pitch wasn’t ready so they had a two week lay-off. They also lost starting winger Zaroury to a red card so will be without him for 3 weeks and as well, Churlinov and Obafemi are injured. In the interim they signed three new players who probably won’t start this week. Now they come up against Villa who have scored 9 goals in their last two games including 3 by the red hot Watkins in their most recent outing.

Villa are 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Burnley are 2-3-1 in their last 6 . Villa holds a 2-1 edge in their last 3 at Burnley.

The Xgoal diff/90 is +0.35 for Villa and -1.6 for Burnley. Add to this that 3 out of 4 expert predictions pick Villa as the most likely to win, as do the sportsbooks and you have a pretty compelling case to go with Villa on Sunday in this matchup.