The set-up: Over-reaction after Week 1 is a major issue for casual bettors. The Browns got destroyed on the road in Baltimore in their first game of the year and the pundits are already out and ready to crucify them. The Bengals were put in a position to win my rookie QB Joe Burrow in their Week 1 loss to the Chargers, but a missed FG at the end of the game cost the team the OT chance. Granted, the Browns looked bad, but I'm not going to read too much into that performance, because even if Cleveland had been "firing on all cylinders," it wasn't likely going to win that game anyways. And the Browns knew that. In fact, I'd argue that they used it almost as a pre-season warm-up and I expect a much stronger performance from Baker Mayfield and company in Week 2.

The pick: It's asking a lot of this young QB to now go on the road and try to win this "Battle of Ohio" vs. this desparate and veteran Browns club. I think Burrow is going to be in for a surprise tonight when he sees how difficult this Browns defense is on its home field. Additionally note that Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring six points or less and allowing 30 points or more in a loss in its last outing. Lay the points!

This is a 10* TOUCH-DOWN on the Cleveland Browns.