The set-up: Northwestern is 5-0, while MSU is just 1-4. Clearly Northwestern is the better team, but I expect complacency to finally settle in here. Michigan State has had an extra week off to prepare as well for this one, so I expect the Spartans to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Wildcats are only allowing 12.6 PPG, but note that they're only scoring 25.8. Peyton Ramsey has been decent with eight TD's and our INT's, but I think the Wildcats take the foot off the gas in the second half.

The picks: Rocky Lombard has seven TD passes and six INTs. MSU has allowed 33.8 PPG over the last four games, but I think the extra time off to prepare will help them here. They also benefit facing this non-explosive Wildcats attack. With a game at Minnesota up next, I think Northwestern does indeed get caught looking ahead. Look for Lombardi to have a bounce back game here and to keep this one close. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan State.