The set-up: After winning two in a row, the Braves enter having lost three straight. I say that slide continues here. Most recently they lost 8-4 to the Jays yesterday. The Brewers have been alteranting wins/losses over their last four games and I believe that pattern continues after yesterday's 2-0 home loss to the Cardinals. This is a pitching matchup which definitely favors the home side.

The pick: Drew Smyly is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA. He comes in off a decent start vs. the Nationals, allowing one run over six innings. The Nats are a poor hitting team though and note that he still owns a terrible 11/10 K/W over his last three outings. Adiran Houser (3-3, 3.44 ERA) has a much better 31/11 K/W over 36.2 innings of work. He comes in off a win over the Marlins and I like him to dominate here at home in this favorable spot. Lay the price.

This is an 8* NL BLOOD-BATH on the Brewers.