Atlanta Braves (Smiley 7-3, 4.50) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez, 3-4)

The Phillies and Braves have split the series so far. Atlanta trails the Phillies by one game for a wild card spot, so this game has real significance. Drew Smiley (7-3, 4.50) is on the mound for Atlanta. He is 5-0 last 7 starts with a 2.65 ERA, and has handled the Phillies‘ big bats in past meetings.

Vince Velasquez has been very erratic this season. He had a good start last time out, preceded by two very poor ones, resulting in an ERA for July of 8.78. Atlanta has soundly thrashed Velasquez this season.

Neither pen has stood out in particular of late. The Phillies’ offense probably has an edge recently. It would be a tough call except for Velasquez. Based on his history, it is hard to see him throw well in two consecutive starts. Smiley has been good in July and much more consistent. I am betting on Atlanta, a small underdog, to win.