Reds (Castillo) vs. Philadelphia (M. Moore)

The Reds are just out of the NL East frying pan (Braves) and into a series with the fire (Philadelphia), but are holding their own. They are 7-3 and well in the frame for a wildcard spot. Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA) is starting. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through June and July. His last start was a reversion to the dark side, but he is 3-1, 3.32 ERA in his last seven starts.

Matt Moore is a shadow of his former self at 1-3 and 6.79 ERA. He was extremely poor in his last start, has been poor at home and very poor against right-handers. Not good against a powerhouse left-handed eating offense like the Reds. Even when Moore is on, you can’t expect more than 4 innings.

The Reds’ new improved bullpen will likely have much less work than the indifferent Phillies relief corp as Castillo will generally give 6 innings per start.

Motivation is not an issue with either team. Cincinnati is a decent road team. The Phillies are good at home but poor vs the NL Central league. The Phillies are definately outgunned by the Reds. I am wagering that Castillo reverts to form, and the Reds win the second game of the series. Based on Moore’s record, I think that the Reds are good for a couple of runs. Take the Reds -1.5