KC Royals (Lynch) vs. Houston Astros (Greinke)

While a run for the playoffs is out of the question, the Royals are still playing like the season means something. They swept the Cubs and that was after taking 3 of 4 against the Astros in Houston. On Monday, 24 year old Daniel Lynch (3-3, 5.12) will take on the Astros for the second time in his short career. Lynch was miserable in his first call-up, but since returning in July, he has been a very effective starter. He is 3-1 since the all-star break with a 2.35 ERA. He held the Astros to 1 run over seven innings when he last faced them.

At 37 years of age, Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.49) is still in fine form. He is still pitching for length (6-7 innings per start), and has been terrific in August with a razor-sharp era of 1.89. Both teams are getting strong results from their bullpens, although Houston’s was well worked over in an 11 inning loss on Sunday. KC’s has been terrific with a collective ERA of 1.42 in their last 7 games.

As far as the offense goes, it is all Astros. They lead the Royals by almost 2 runs scored per game, and 25 points in batting average. They have a very good home record, but are not as successful against left handed pitchers. The Royals have not shown well on the road this season, and have not been effective vs righties.

The Astros are unlikely to take KC lightly this time around after their last series. They are a heavy favorite on Monday. I actually like the Royals’ chances in this game but am more confident in the total.

These are two very effective starters with good length to their outings and solid relief. The total seems high. I am wagering on the total to go under on Monday.