Padres (Darvish, 8-19, 4.32) vs Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.88)

Finally a team has made a concerted run for the last spot in the crowded NL wild card spot, and it is, to many people’s surprise, the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have good starting pitching and in the last month are hitting well above their weight. The same cannot be said about the Padres. At 8-2 in their last 10 games, many of their starters are struggling, their bullpen is overused and ineffective, and their offense has plummeted.

Yu Darvish has not lived up to his reputation in the 2nd half of the season. He is 1-5 in his last 7 games, and a very poor 2-6, 6.33 ERA on the road. Don’t count on the bull pen to bail him out. It has been used at an unsustainable rate, especially lately, and is struggling with a 6.33 ERA.

Adam Wainwright turned 40 this year but still pitches like a Cy Young winner. He show no signs of slowing down, allowing only 5 runs over 20+ innings in his last 3 games. He is a strong 8-5, 2.71 at home. The Cardinals’ pen has been solid of late and their light hitting offense has found a groove.

The Padres are an indifferent road team (32-40), a 10-22 underdog, and arguably the worst hitting team in the MLB in the last month. The Cardinals are 40-33 at home, and very good when a favorite.

I am wagering on the Cards today. Take St. Louis to win outright.