The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success.

The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion.

The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business.

The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover.