Texas has one of the top scoring defenses in the entire country (just 59.6 PPG allowed), but I expect this game with TCU to be higher scoring than expected. The Longhorns give up a lot more points when they’re outside of Austin. For the record, the Big 12 Tournament takes place in Kansas City.

Just to illustrate, when they’re at home, Texas gives up only 52.8 points per game. When they are outside of Austin, they give up 69.9 PPG. That is a big difference!

Both times Texas and TCU played in the regular season, the game went Over the total. The second time, there were 141 total points scored. TCU shot abnormally well in that one, but Texas also missed 13 of 14 three-pointers. Whatever shot regression we see here from the Horned Frogs will be made up by the Longhorns being better from behind the arc.

Seven of Texas’ last eight games would have gone Over today’s total. The last five have averaged 136.4 PPG.

TCU is 3-0 Over in neutral court games this season. They are also 8-2 to the Over when the total is 120 to 129.5.