The least likely matchup in the Sweet 16 takes place in the Midwest Regional where 10-seed Miami takes on 11-seed Iowa State. Both teams have twice beaten higher seeds to get here, each pulling a notable upset in the second game. Iowa State has dumped LSU and Wisconsin while Miami overcame USC and Auburn. A lot of folks didn’t have either of these squads escaping the first round.

But here we are and one of them is going to go to the Elite Eight. I think that will be Miami. The Hurricanes’ win over Auburn was one of the more impressive upsets that I’ve seen as they won by 18 over the second seed. That was after jumping out to an early double digit advantage over USC.

Iowa State’s two wins have both been by five points. The Cyclones didn’t score 60 in either game, instead relying on their defense which has seen opponents miss 35 of 41 three-point attempts thus far. I don’t think ISU can continue counting on that kind of poor three-point shooting. Now Miami is just 4 of 29 from behind the arc so far in the tourney. At the same time, that is due to IMPROVE. A perfect storm?

The Canes still nearly scoring 80 points against Auburn despite only three made three is very impressive. I know Iowa State is tough defensively, but this matchup seems above its “pay grade.” The Cyclones just don’t have enough offense. Over their last five games, they have averaged only 51.6 points on 35% shooting!

Take Miami on the money line.