This is a matchup of a Top 10 team in defensive efficiency (Cleveland) against a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency (Brooklyn). The Nets won three of the four regular season matchups and with Kyrie Irving now a full-time participant, it’s no wonder why the home team is a decided favorite in this play-in scenario. Cleveland slumped badly down the stretch, going 3-8 SU and ATS over its last 11 games.

But Brooklyn wasn’t exactly profitable here at home either. They possess the worst home ATS mark in the NBA at 9-31-1. So let’s play the total instead.

The Nets have scored a minimum of 110 points in every game they’ve played going back to March 6th. Cleveland’s defensive numbers also seemed to fall off a cliff down the stretch, allowing at least 112 points in six of the last seven games.

Over each team’s last five games, both are averaging more total points (scored + allowed) than the total for this game.

This is a low total for Brooklyn. They haven’t seen a total below 230 points since March 18th. The last three Nets’ games with a total sub-230 points all went Over. The Over is 11-4 in the Cavs’ previous 15 games.