Padres’ starter Joe Musgrove (2.08) has been the picture of consistency, allowing no more than 2 runs per start in 6 outings. His last two have been 7 innings in length. Like his opponent on Sunday, he has 41 strikeouts.

His opponent, the Braves’ Kyle Wright (3.03) opened the season very well, but struggled his last time out allowing 6 runs in 4+ innings. His hits-allowed total has climbed noticeably in May.

The Braves pulled out a late win vs the Padres on Saturday, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a losing record at home and vs right-handers. The Padres are 11-5 on the road, but have lost a little of their shine lately and are also just 5-5 L10. Both bullpens have struggled in their last 5 games; the Braves’ has given up 8 runs in two games, and Padres’ pen, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00 lately, dropped four runs on Saturday.

Kyle Wright’s rising hit and base on balls count indicates that he is flirting with trouble. He found it last time out, and he may find it again on Sunday. Musgrove has much more of a track record, and with him pitching into the seventh inning, allows less bullpen time for the Padres. I am wagering on Musgrove and the underdog Padres tomorrow.