The Celtics are 7-4 Under in the postseason with their games averaging 210.3 points. The Heat are 8-2-1 to the Under with their games averaging just 204.6 points. So it shouldn’t come as a shock to see a low total for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I believe the number should be even lower.

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season. Miami is #2 in defensive efficiency in the playoffs. The team that was #1 in defensive efficiency, Milwaukee, is who the Celtics just eliminated. But it was a low-scoring series with five of the games going Under and seeing no more than 204 total points scored.

Going back to the first round, Miami has allowed less than 100 points in six of its last eight games. They’ve allowed more than 103 only one time.

Look for Boston to rightfully focus on containing Jimmy Butler in this series. Butler has been excellent in the first two rounds, but his shooting - particularly from three-point range - seems likely to decline. I make that assessment based on his regular season numbers.

Boston’s last three visits to Miami have all resulted in the game going Under. Don’t look for many points in Game 1 either. Take the Under.