Boston made almost 40 percent of its threes in Games 6 and 7 against Milwaukee. That number fell to 32.4 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami, who was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, made only 33.3 percent of its threes. Yet the game still went Over rather easily with the teams combining to score 225 points.

The defensive reputations of the two squads are well known by the oddsmakers and looking back in retrospect, it seems they set a trap with the Game 1 total being so low. The O/U for Game 2 is now a few points higher, not a surprise, but it is not high enough.

In addition to the expected improved three-point shooting from both teams, we know that Marcus Smart and Al Horford are both banged up for Boston. It’s not looking good for Horford in Game 2 while Smart is now “probable.” But dealing with a foot injury, you can’t expect Smart to resemble the same guy who won Defensive Player of the Year.

Jimmy Butler scored 41 for Miami in Game 1. He probably won’t do that again, however his teammates are likely to lend more support, making up whatever “decline” there is from Butler.

These teams have combined to go over in 12 straight Conference Finals games. Both are averaging 108 points per game in the playoffs. Go with the Over.