The Western Conference Finals was an unkind series for yours truly, but I went 4-2 in the L6 games of the Eastern Conference Finals. It was Boston coming through as a 10* play in Game 7. For Game 1 of the NBA Finals, I’m focusing on the total.

In a series that figured to be low-scoring going in, the Celtics & Heat combined to score 212 or more points in four of the seven games. Now Boston faces a Golden State team that has averaged the most points per possession in the league during the playoffs.

The Warriors have averaged 114.5 points/game in the playoffs, which is more than they averaged during the regular season. Assuming they can reach, or just come close to, that average, then it shouldn’t be much of a problem seeing this game go Over the total.

The fewest points scored by the Warriors over their last six games is 109. This is the lowest O/U for any of their playoff games.

The Warriors shot better than 51% in all three home games last round. That’s pretty significant as Dallas was the #2 team in points per game allowed in the regular season. Take the Over.