The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12).

The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3.

Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference.

Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points.