What do I expect in game two of the Stanley Cup final? A tighter game, with Tampa Bay attempting to control more of the Av's "turn on the afterburners" style of play. A better game from Vasilevskiy, who also took a game to get going vs. the Rangers. The Lightning allowed 37 shots and Vasilevskiy was under .900 in save %. The Lightning can't win with that kind of performance from their star attraction.

For the Av's, they will need to avoid a 2nd period slump, but they held the Lightning to just 23 shots, so they can continue with more of the same, and hope for a better performance from Kuemper. Kuemper had a long lay-off previous to Game one, and is capable of a much better game. It is easy to underestimate the Av's defense. They were 9th in the regular season, and started to play a tough play-off style in meaningful games late in the regular season.

The Av's are a moderate favorite today, but if Vasilevskiy plays to his capabilities, an Avalanche win is certainly not assured. I can't see the Avs breaking this game open, and I expect Kuemper to rebound. The best bet today is still the total. Take the Av's and Lightning to go under 6 goals.