The Mets came in and took the series opener behind seven strong innings from Max Scherzer. I believe they can beat Atlanta again today with David Peterson set to start.

Peterson has a 9-2 team start record, which means the Mets have won 9 of the 11 times he’s started in 2022. His last start was shorter than usual (3.6 innings) with control issues (five walks). But that doesn’t worry me as the two starts before that one saw 18 strikeouts, no walks and only five runs allowed in 13 innings. Plus, the Mets won that last Peterson start anyway.

Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has been very good as well lately. Over his last three starts, his ERA is 0.50 and his WHIP is 0.611. Those are actually pretty filthy numbers. But the Braves are still just 4-4 in Strider’s eight starts this year.

Being that these are the top two teams in the NL East, this would seem to be a pretty even matchup, no? Taking the underdog is the way to go.

Now Strider does deserve our respect, so play the run line. Getting 1.5 runs at this price with a team like the Mets is a good deal. Before losing 4-1 last night, the Braves’ previous two games were both one-run wins against the last place Nationals.