Pittsburgh surprised a lot of people by going into Miami and winning 5-1. Following consecutive wins over the Brewers, the Pirates now find themselves on just their third three-game win streak of this season. They’ve yet to win four in a row. Over the last three seasons, the team has gone just 1-8 when it’s on a three-game win streak. So look for the Marlins to strike back and win today.

The Pirates have the worst offensive numbers of any National League team. Whether it’s on the road, or the last seven games overall, they’re hitting just .217. They average 3.4 runs/game on the road. A fourth straight game above that average seems rather unlikely.

The Marlins could certainly use a jolt at the plate. Fortunately, they’ll be facing Chris Stratton, who will be making his first start for the Pirates and first start period since 2019. Stratton has struggled as a reliever this year and doesn’t figure to last long. He’ll likely be used more as an “opener.” The problem with that (for the Pirates) is that the bullpen isn’t very reliable.

Daniel Castano should be able to lead Miami to the win here. I already talked about how bad Pittsburgh has been swinging the bats. Castano’s last start at home was his best of the season, allowing just two runs in seven innings.