The Reds had quite a run before the break, taking a series from the Yankees and sweeping the Rays, but they have lost 2 of 3 to the Cardinals since. It is usually pitching issues for the Reds, and sure enough both starters and relievers have both slumped to ERAs approaching six in their last 7 games. Mahle (3-7, 4.48), Sunday’s starter, has just returned from the IL, out with shoulder issues. He has pitched better in his last starts than his record would suggest, but he has not been effective at home, and likely won’t pitch for length on Sunday.

The 5-3 Cardinals are near the top of the heap for offense at .299/.898 OPS in their last 7 games. Some of their starters are struggling, but that has not been the case with Mikolas. He has an ERA of 1.93 over his last 7 starts. Mikolas stymied the Reds just before the break, holding them to 1 run over 7 innings. Mikolas has been dependable and has consistently pitched for length this season.

Neither bullpen has been effective lately. This is no surprise for the Reds, but the Cardinals’ pen is usually more dependable. Mikolas will likely be more effective and stay in the game longer than Mahle, giving the Cards’ batters a chance to tee off on Cincinnati’s relievers. Take the Cardinals, a modest favorite, to win.