The Red Sox surely remember being swept by the Blue Jays here at Fenway Park last month. If you recall, that series began with a humiliating 28-5 defeat for the home team. It was the most runs surrendered in a game by a Red Sox team - ever. It was also a Blue Jays’ franchise record for runs scored.

That humiliation occurred in the first game after the All Star Break. Boston has now fallen six games back of the Wild Card, but is 6-4 in its last 10 games. Toronto is in a virtual three-way tie for the three WC spots with Seattle and Tampa Bay. They are just 5-5 L10 games despite taking three of four at Yankee Stadium over the weekend.

Boston was going to start Nathan Eovaldi tonight, but he’s dealing with a sore muscle. Taking his spot in the rotation will be Josh Winckowski and that’s okay by me. Winckowski has gone at least five innings in each of his last four starts. Toronto’s offense has also cooled off over the last week or so.

Ross Stripling is the starter for the Blue Jays Tuesday. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Orioles last Wednesday. But I think Stripling is due to cool off. Over his last seven starts, he’s failed to make it through five innings three different times. Last time out marked just the fourth time all year Stripling has gone longer than five innings.

At plus money, playing at home with revenge, I like the Red Sox in this situation. They are due to beat the Blue Jays here at Fenway. Toronto is -19.0 units as a favorite. 10*