The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause. They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today. Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances. With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today. The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way. About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen.
Musgrove starts for the Padres. He is 0-4, 4.42 in his last 7 starts, a considerable drop from his early season results. He is off a very short start, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs, only 2 earned.
The Giants are a demoralized team. They have lost 6 straight and are out of the play offs for all intents and purposes. I like the total today. The number is based more on the reputation of these two pitchers and not on recent performances, especially Webb's. Add to that, some rough performances from the Padres' bullpen (ERA 5.60 recently), and you have a recipe for an over. Take advantage of an unexpectedly low total and jump on the over today.