The Orioles knocked off the Red Sox to stay within reach in the wildcard race. They ran in to a tough Jays team in their last series but have been very tough on sub .500 teams this year. They are also very good at home. Lyles starts for the Orioles on Saturday. He has pitched very well at 4-1, and with an ERA of 2.72/L7, but his low point lately was a 9 hit, 4 run, 4 inning appearance vs the Sox. His last two starts were very good. Lyles is a much better pitcher at home.

The 5-5 Red Sox were swept by the Rays and are now down a game in Baltimore. They were hitting very well, but have fallen off in the last week. Wacha, who has been the Sox’ best pitcher this year., starts on Saturday. He has been back from the IL for 6 starts and 5 of them were of good quality. He shut down the Orioles in August, pitching into the 6th and allowing 4 hit and no runs. Wacha has been less effective on the road, and there is a trio of Orioles hitters who have had very good success over the years.

This could be a good match-up between the starters, and it may come down to relief pitching, in which case the Orioles have a decided advantage. That and the Orioles’ home field success leads me to lean towards Baltimore. Take the Orioles to win.