At first glance, the over 3.5 goals might appear to be an attractive option. Further review reveals that the opposite is true. Off a 5-0 loss to Arsenal, Chelsea will be determined to clean up its goals conceded. In its previous match, Chelsea recorded a clean sheet.

Aston Villa has only conceded one goal in its last 2 league matches combined. Eight of the past 9 meetings have produced 3 goals or less. The last 3 matches had scores of 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0. Go with the Under!