At 6:50 ET, my AL East TOY is on Baltimore/Tampa under the total. Corbin Burnes is one of the most reliable starters in American League. If he stays healthy, he is a serious Cy Young Award contender. He's 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.029 WHIP. On the road, he's got a 0.969 WHIP. Pepiot has an even better WHIP (0.955) than Burnes, in his 10 starts. He leads all Tampa starters in batting average against (.185).

Over his last 6 starts, Burnes has permitted just 6 combined runs. Over his last 7 starts, Pepiot has only conceded 13 total runs, less than 2 per outing. The hitters aren't familiar with either starter. Both will making their first career start against today's opponent. The pitchers will have the advantage and this game will be low-scoring. Play on the Under.