PREMIUM
AAA's 10* SIDE OF WEEK - INSANE 23-7 (77%) BIG TICKET 10* STREAK!
(NCAAB) Dayton vs. Saint Mary's-California,
12/19/2017 5:00 PM, Score: 54 - 69
Point Spread: -10.00 | -115.00 Saint Mary's-California (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -10.00 | -115.00 Saint Mary's-California (Home)
Result: Win
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Saint Mary's.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relative ATS stats and common sense:
As note that Dayton is just 3-5 ATS this season against teams with winning records and only 1-2 ATS against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Saint Mary's is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 9.5 to 12 points range (also interestingly 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games played in the month of December.)
The bottom line: Dayton is just 5-5, including 0-1 in true road games this year. Saint Mary's is 9-2 overall, including 6-0 at home. It's 0-3 ATS in lined home games this season though. The Gaels won at Cal at the beginning of the month and this will be their first big test since then. We think Saint Mary's will be up to the task today in this interesting non-conference matchup. The Flyers have alternated wins and losses over their last four games, but with a much more "winnable" matchup against Wagner at home up next, it's also not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead here as well. We're expecting a rout. Lay the points, play on SAINT MARY'S.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relative ATS stats and common sense:
As note that Dayton is just 3-5 ATS this season against teams with winning records and only 1-2 ATS against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Saint Mary's is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 9.5 to 12 points range (also interestingly 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games played in the month of December.)
The bottom line: Dayton is just 5-5, including 0-1 in true road games this year. Saint Mary's is 9-2 overall, including 6-0 at home. It's 0-3 ATS in lined home games this season though. The Gaels won at Cal at the beginning of the month and this will be their first big test since then. We think Saint Mary's will be up to the task today in this interesting non-conference matchup. The Flyers have alternated wins and losses over their last four games, but with a much more "winnable" matchup against Wagner at home up next, it's also not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead here as well. We're expecting a rout. Lay the points, play on SAINT MARY'S.
AAA Sports
