10* NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH - +$69K NBA SIDES
(NBA) Miami vs. Portland, 02/27/2024 10:00 PM, Score: 106 - 96
Point Spread: 6.50 | -103.00 Portland (Home)
Result: Loss
10* Blazers (NON-CONFERENCE GOM)

On one side we have the Miami Heat, who are 32-25 overall, including 17-12 on the road, and who are arguably playing their best basketball of the season, off four straight road wins, all as an underdog, including just last night with a 121-110 win over the Kings in Sacramento just last night.

On the other end of the court we have the Portland Trailblazers, who are just 15-41 overall. They've struggled at home and on the road, but after eight straight SU losses and seven straight ATS setbacks, we feel this is a great spot for Portland to, at the very least, sneak away with a comfortable cover finally.

We're primarily situational handicappers, and this one falls right into our wheelhouse.

These teams haven't played since 2022 and the Blazers beat the Heat on the road in that game.

But after the four straight road victories, including the impressive one just last night, and with a game at the defending champs up next, going to Denver to end this six-game road swing, we say that not only is this a natural "letdown" spot, but also clearly a "look-ahead" spot. Would anyone fault the Heat for looking ahead to that one after this stretch of great play.

Clearly Miami will be resting players in anticipation of that one.

When you add those two factors together, letdown + look-ahead, you get "TRAP GAME."

Doesn't set up any better as being a "TRAP" game here in our opinion as situational cappers.

We're also contrarians, and with 60% of the early public money on the visitors, that also appeals to our contrarian side.

The Blazers are just 9-19 at home. They're off the 93-80 loss at home to lowly Charlotte as 3.5-point favorites. Pretty much the lowest of the low right now for Portland.

But Portland has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 against the spread in its last five after a SU and ATS home loss as a favorite in which its been held to 85 or fewer points in.

We base our picks on many different things. Some times it involves injuries. Other times we base our picks on really strong trends. Other times its based on situations.

This particular pick is a fantastic "SITUATIONAL" play and while we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are suggesting here, so the official call will be indeed to grab as many points as you can with the Blazers!

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