PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NFL Big Ticket Thursday
(NFL) New England vs. Atlanta,
11/18/2021 8:20 PM, Score: 25 - 0
Total: 47.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 47.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
The Falcons have much to prove after scoring just three points in a 40-point loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 21.4 in that game, lowest of his career.
It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week.
New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games.
Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too.
Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury.
This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league.
The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games.
New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average.
It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under.
It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week.
New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games.
Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too.
Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury.
This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league.
The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games.
New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average.
It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under.
