Ball State: Ball State opened 12-0 in 2008 (but finished 12-2) and as recently as 2013 was 10-3. However, the success of those teams seem far-removed from expectations here in 2016. Pete Lembo suffered through 5-7 and 3-9 seasons the last two years and resigned to become assistant head coach at Maryland. Mike Neu takes over and will be a head coach for the first time in his career (spent the last two seasons as the New Orleans Saints QB coach). The Cardinals return 15 starters but must play seven road games, not a good thing coming off going 1-5 SU on the road in 2015.

Georgia State: Trent Miles took over in Atlanta with the Panthers going a combined 1-23 in 2013 and 2014 in his first two seasons. The Panthers opened 2-6 in 2015 but then went 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch, earning the school's first-ever bowl berth. That game didn't go well, as Ga. St. lost to a 5-7 San Jose St team 27-16 in the first Cure Bowl. The Panthers return 16 starters but replacing QB Nick Arbuckle may be impossible. After all, he was the key ingredient in the school's four-game winning streak, finishing the year with 4,368 passing yards and a 28-to-12 TD-to INT ratio.


The pick: Both schools return nine defensive starters but the Georgia State offense is without Arbuckle and Ball Sate features a first-time head coach who inherits an offense which averaged only 23.1 PPG last year. Georgia St won 31-19 at Ball State last season and while I expect the Panthers to win again this year (this time at home), I believe the winner won't score much more than 21 points this time around. The under is a 10* play.