The Bucs are 4-1 straight-up in their previous five home games, with the lone loss coming against the Cincinnati Bengals over that stretch. The Cowboys are 1-2 in their last three road games, with the win coming over a Titans team resting most of its starters and battling injuries. The pressure is on the Cowboys here, and I believe the Bucs are playing with house money.
I expect mistakes to be the difference. Dallas QB Dak Prescott was tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite being 19th in pass attempts. Dallas has also been penalized for 120 more yards this season than Tampa Bay. Take the Bucs for plus money.