With a large sample size behind us, let's not try and overthink this. The Dodgers are 70-41 on the runline this season, and the most profitable runline team in MLB (+$2,880). Los Angeles has also won 10 straight games, all by two runs or more, with the last six wins all coming up three runs or more. Andrew Heaney is scheduled to start this game, and LA is 5-1 in his starts and has outscored their opponents 42-14 in those games. I like that the Dodgers are on the road here, giving them at least nine full at-bats.
On the other side, the Royals are 19th in runline profit (-$1042). Kansas City is also 1-3 in Brad Kellers' last four starts, with all three losses coming by at least four runs. LA is the superior team all the way around and still fighting to make sure the red-hot Mets don't catch them for the best record in the NL. Take the Dodgers -1.5