Regardless of whether Jones or Zappe starts this total is too low. Detroit leads the NFL averaging 6.5 yards per play, and the Patriots are a solid 11th averaging 5.7 yards per play. Defensively both teams are in the bottom half with New England ranking 18th allowing 5.6 yards per play, and the Lions 31st also allowing 6.5 yards per play.
The last seven straight Patriots games at home have gone over, along with their last five games in October. The Lions last six games have gone over. Take the over up to 48.