10* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): Each team has won a game handily in this series. Pittsburgh opened with a 6-1 win on Friday before Milwaukee fired back with a 7-1 win one Saturday. The Brew Crew are heavily favored to take Sunday’s rubber match and while I see a strong likelihood of that occurring, the Under offers more value here and is even more likely to cash. Each of the Brewers’ last four games have gone Under with none of them seeing more than eight total runs scored.

Whether you like the Brewers or the Under, starter Freddy Peralta has got to be the key to victory. In three appearances this year (two starts), Peralta has dazzled by allowing just one run and five hits in 13 IP. He has 24 strikeouts, second most on the team, as well. The lone run surrendered was on a home run. His ERA is down to 0.69 and opponents are batting just .119 off him. While Peralta has 10 career appearances against the Pirates, his only start saw him toss six shutout innings.

The Pirates, who are widely expected to be a bad team in 2021, had been hitting well going into yesterday. But they went 0 for 9 with RISP. It should be noted that five of Milwaukee’s seven runs yesterday came with two outs in the first inning. Bucs starter Chad Kuhl has been shaky so far with all three starts going Over. But he’s 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew winning here would be beneficial as they’d come up to bat eight times, rather than nine. 10* Under Pirates/Brewers