9* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The Twins thought they had another win over the Guardians last night when they struck for three runs in the top half of the 10th. But the home team had other ideas, scoring four of their own in the bottom half of that inning and winning in walkoff fashion via a Josh Naylor home run. That dramatic victory puts the Guardians just two games back of the Twins in the AL Central and they actually have one fewer loss on the season. But I look at Minnesota’s superior run differential (+45 vs. +12) and what Chris Archer, their starter for Thursday, has done recently. This is a great value on the road team.

Over his last three starts, Archer has a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP. He tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball against Colorado last week. Though he’s predominantly been going just four or five innings per start, Archer simply has not been giving up many runs. He’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Something to note is that going into yesterday’s game, Twins’ pitching had been nothing short of phenomenal over the last week. They’d allowed just eight runs in seven games with three shutouts. This will actually be the first time the Guardians are facing Archer this season.

Shane Bieber isn’t what he once was for Cleveland. He’s been getting hit hard and his strikeout rate is down. As a result, you’re looking at someone that has allowed one HR in three consecutive outings. Though he’s allowed three runs or less each of his last eight starts, Bieber has a 4.23 ERA at home. Cleveland had not topped three runs in a game since 6/22, that was until the bottom of the 10 last night. They scored only 12 runs the previous seven games. 9* Minnesota