MIT Simulator - NFL Sunday Falcons vs Panthers Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Atlanta 31.94, Carolina 14.81 - Projected Margin of Victory: 17.13 - Current Line: -3 - Variance to Line: 14.13 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 14.13 points. Value is a rare two touchdowns here! Projected box-score shows Falcons rushing edge of 34.48 yards in excess of Panthers rushing total and passing edge for Atlanta of 117.73 yards in excess of Carolina's total through the air. Key factors noted: Carolina will enter this game with hopes for the division title but Atlanta is entering with their playoff lives on the line. That is a key factor as is the home field edge and the Falcons should make the most of it here. Even though Carolina hung on to beat the Buccaneers last week, the Panthers were outgained by 137 yards. Even though Atlanta lost at New Orleans last week, the Falcons did outgain the Saints in that game. This has created some additional line value here as statistically last week's results did not match the scoreboard for either of these teams. In comparing these teams, Atlanta is the much better passing team. Carolina is on a 1-5 ATS run in dome games and the Panthers are on a 6-11 ATS run in divisional games. The Falcons have been strong late in the season in recent years and expect to improve to 9-3 SU the last 3 years in games played in the final 4 weeks of a season. Atlanta's defense has allowed only 19 points per game last 4 weeks. Carolina's defense has allowed 25 points per game their last 5 games. MIT Simulator composite forecast (Total yardage edge of 152.21) equating to Atlanta victory by 17.13 points. Play: FALCONS