D-Backs right-hander Ryne Nelson (6-7, 5.47) will square off vs Javier Assad (3-2, 2.69) here on Thursday evening at Wrigley. It is important to note that the wind will be blowing in at approximately 10 mph during the game, and the wind at Wrigley is usually a big deal. Nelson has been blown up two starts in a row now, and to us that means he is due to bounce-back and have a good performance, or sooner or later he will have to be sent down. Players hate the Minor Leagues and when facing ultimatums, they usually step up and do well. Assad has been great lately, with a 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts, and after three in a row it's not usually a coincidence anymore. Let's roll with the under in this one Thursday night.