PREMIUM
Major
(NFL) Cincinnati vs. New Orleans,
Point Spread: -7.00 | -103.00 New Orleans (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -7.00 | -103.00 New Orleans (Home)
Result: Loss
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1177-983-46 at 4.13 z-score.
Despite Saints brutal OT loss still much better at home than on road. It is a good spot play. Bengals first of three road games off three straight at home, Saints second of three home games. Saints bad fortune: OT loss and by three to Detroit. They could easily have a much better mark. Saints under .500 straight up but get 435 yards per game and allow 366. Bengals over .500 yet get 340 but give up 390. In short, this says the Saints are much better than their deceptive straight up mark, while the Bengals much worse.
If line at -7 or higher, an under .500 to above .600 7-2 against the spread in this rare situation.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1177-983-46 at 4.13 z-score.
Despite Saints brutal OT loss still much better at home than on road. It is a good spot play. Bengals first of three road games off three straight at home, Saints second of three home games. Saints bad fortune: OT loss and by three to Detroit. They could easily have a much better mark. Saints under .500 straight up but get 435 yards per game and allow 366. Bengals over .500 yet get 340 but give up 390. In short, this says the Saints are much better than their deceptive straight up mark, while the Bengals much worse.
If line at -7 or higher, an under .500 to above .600 7-2 against the spread in this rare situation.
