Teams with bad turnover ratio and inefficient defense (JAC) 1188-990-46 for a z-score. 4.2 z-score. Houston Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is off career day. But he is decent QB trying to follow that up. There is a reason he is a bottom rung starter. He is not going to follow it up with another great game.

Why do we say this? Last game he had 147.5 QBR. Only once exceeded 100 QBR in his previous seven starts. Teams with a winning percentage in the .500 versus an opponent winning percentage of .250 or less late in year good go-against. What this means is teams on pure spoiler situations are very good bets against a team with a small margin of error for making the plays.

The Jags won last two in series in both cases getting 3.5 or more. The Texans haven't won back-to-back games since they defeated Washington and Oakland to start the season. Jags players fighting for careers so they are plenty motivated. This is also as big of a sharp versus square game all season.