I have always preached how turnovers are a lag indicator not a lead indicator and that a bad turnover rate is correctable and actually shows an upside, while a good turnover rate is partially good fortune, tougher to maintain and has more of a downside. We have a nice angle that essentially says to go with the team with a significantly worse turnover margin that is 733-595.

That is not in and of itself spectacular, though pretty solid and confirms what I have preached all along. This is also a case of using the oddsmakers knowledge against them. When the oddsmakers make a statement that is blatantly counterintuitive to what straight up records would indicate, listen to what they are saying and ride it.

At 3-7 straight up, there is good reason the Pokes are favorites to a 10-0 team. No team in the NFL has a more deceptive mark as the Cowboys are 3-0 straight up with their two biggest weapons Tony Romo and Dez Bryant in the line-up and 0-7 straight up with one or both out.

If Dallas were not ravaged by injuries, they would have a much better record and would be a much bigger fave. The is the Panthers first ever Thankgiving game where it is a yearly thing for Dallas. So no question who is better at dealing with the short week, high profile game.