Unfortunately, many of us sharps have the same metrics and some whales moved this line out of Wise Guy territory into Major shortly after it was released at 3.5. It has to do with road favorites off a loss but with a few other parameters that is 430-299. Also one of our use the oddsmakers knowledge against them, seemingly counterintuitive angle that says to go with fairly big road favorites when their away winning percentage is less than the opponents home winning percentage that is 413-320.

Rest dynamics generally benefit the home team. However, when the road team is more rested, it nullifies the normal home court advantage and creates an off line to the tune of 357-272. The winner percentage rises when combined with the home/road splits angle above.