Teams off a dominant rushing effort has gone under 410-267. High scoring teams with a total that is not extremely high has gone under 603-478. Yes, it is based on season-to-date stats, but very much applies in game 2 and early in the season as in fact, overreaction tends to happen with limited data. When both apply, it has gone under 76-38. In week 4 or less it has gone under 49-24.