Pitcher with much worse ERA is a very good bet. This is a clear regression to the mean angle to the tune of +340.29. Horrible teams playing well lately are +100.75 for 8.2 ROI. A similar angle says bad teams off a win are +206.8 units. Less successful pitcher based on season-to-date stats is +226.12 units. When the above angles are mixed and matched, all go well into double digits ROI. We have one where when three angles apply, the ROI is 37.7 percent.