Wise Guy
(MLB) Cincinnati vs. Chi Cubs,
Money Line: -152.00 Chi Cubs (Home)
Result: Loss
Pitcher with much worse ERA is a very good bet. This is a clear regression to the mean angle to the tune of +362.17. Go with less successful pitcher season to date based on W-L record is +226.46. When both apply, it has had just one losing season and is +87.94 for 15.8 ROI. It is even better as a big favorite. As much as I hate chalk, facts come first.