Wise Guy
(MLB) St. Louis vs. Atlanta,
Money Line: -109.00 Atlanta (Home)
Result: Loss
Pitcher with much worse ERA is a very good bet. This is a clear regression to the mean angle to the tune of +352.2. Superior home team with inferior pitcher based on season-to-date stats is +97.43. Combined it is +81.92 units, a 14.5 ROI and just one losing season.