USA is clearly the better team. They are 15-6 all-time straight up in the series winning both last year and five in a row. Going with road teams off a 15-point or more loss, in a clash of two teams that are middling on defense (allowing 67-74 points per game) is a fantastic 633-507.

Again, being counterintuitive is necessary in gambling. Of course the oddsmakers know the public dreads betting slumping bad teams off blowout losses on the road. So they are going to have extra value.

USA has a wicked defense. Georgia State is the first Sun Belt team to score more points against South Alabama than their season average coming in to the game. The first eight opponents were held to at least 4.1 points below their average entering the game, with two held to 10 points or more (WKU 10.3, ULL 12.0).