There are various combinations of parameters to mix and match the double-digit point spread with each team's respective winning percentages, but essentially a team with a very high winning percentage laying a substantial number at home is a very good go-against versus a team with a low winning percentage.

Indiana won the trade deadline. The "problem" is that with Evan Turner and Lavoy Allen entering a line-up that was already one of the best in the league, there will be some minor chemistry issues to adjust to. Look for the proverbial, "one step back before taking two steps forward."

Now that the Pacers have shown they are clearly for real, they have finally become a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.
Though 42-13 straight up including 26-3 at home, they are 1-5-1 their last seven and 4-10-1 their last 15. Similarly, the Lake Show are only 19-37 straight up though more than half of their straight up wins are on the road. At 10-19 straight up on the highway, they are 8-2 their last 10 on the road including three straight covers. They are a solid 15-8 their last 23 on the road.

All the key metrics point towards this being an overvalued big favorite against an undervalued team. The next few games are ideal for Indiana to work their new players into the line-up and worry about the big picture, not blowing out an inferior squad.

Pick: LA LAKERS +13

Just because Joe Duffy is known as "Mr. March" and "Lord of the Big Dance," does not mean Joe Duffy's Picks only dominates that month. Off another 2-0 sweep with Bucks and Oklahoma (not even counting the free pick on Maryland), we are now 32-14 with all Premium Picks. You have not seen anything yet. As we approach a two weeks since our last Wise Guy loss, we have another Wise Guy winner tonight among three winners now.