Baltimore @ Cleveland 4:30 PM ET
Game# 305-306
Play On: Cleveland -3.0 (5*)

Here we are entering Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have a 5-8 team (Cleveland) as a favorite over a 9-4 (Baltimore) opponent. Yes, Baltimore is without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, but this line still speaks volumes to me. NFL betting history over the last 27 season has shown that losing teams that are favorite over winning teams this late in the year have been a strong play on.

NFL favorites like Cleveland playing after Game 12 with a losing record, versus teams like Baltimore who own a win percentage of .692 or better, resulted in those favorites going 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS since 1996. If those losing teams were favorites of 3.5 or less, they improved to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS throughout that identical time span with a substantial average victory margin of 17.6 points per game.

Give me Cleveland minus the points.