The Bills score more than the Chiefs by over a touchdown per game. Their defense allows only 3 more points per game compared to the outstanding Chiefs' defense. The Bills have won 3 out of the last 4 games against the Chiefs, and they have a significantly larger scoring margin per game than the Chiefs. Both teams are capable of playing well in cold weather, and the Bills are not intimidated by playing at Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen has been a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes this season and is the league MVP. The Chiefs have escaped in many games this season, but in this matchup, their luck runs out—the Bills will win outright.